Fuel rules set Big 3's future
By Scott Burgess, The Detroit News
Automakers must adjust to tighter emission standards while building next generation of cars.
December 20, 2007
When President Bush signed a landmark energy bill into law Wednesday, he set into motion what consumers will drive in the coming years and what automakers will build.
The legislation requires automakers to increase fuel efficiency requirements by 40 percent to a fleet-wide industry average of 35 miles per gallon by 2020.
Raising fuel efficiency requirements means all carmakers will have to adjust. Some vehicles will get smaller or lighter, truck-based SUVs could become relics and more fuel-saving technology will make its way under the hood of every vehicle. All will likely get more expensive.
"It's going to be really interesting," Jack Nerad, an analyst with Kelley Blue Book, said of future vehicle lineups. "Things like the Chevy Volt (plug-in hybrid) could conceivably be out there. It's less difficult to make than a hydrogen fuel cell and, with the exception of the battery pack, it's ready to go."
Nerad said every car company's lineup will become more efficient, but not as much as many people may think.
"We're not going to see anything (substantial) for some years," he said.
While no carmaker will say what cars could face the efficiency ax or what new additions could make it into their lineups, all are urgently developing new products and technologies that would help them reach the higher standards, ranging from direct injection gasoline engines and hydrogen-powered fuel cells to lighter bodies and more efficient parts.
And they're doing it despite not yet knowing the details of the new rules. Even with the law's passage, carmakers don't know how much they need to improve their fleet numbers because of the complexity of the new system.
The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration still must create a new attribute-based system for passenger cars, setting requirements based on vehicle size.
Depending on the size of an automaker fleet's, the company will have to meet a different overall average. Honda Motor Co. and Toyota Motor Corp. might have to average as high as 38 mpg or 39 mpg because they make fewer larger trucks and SUVs than Detroit's automakers.
Changes already being made
Despite public perception and claims by some members of Congress, Detroit's automakers have been steadily working to improve fuel efficiency.
"We continue to make improvements in what we call the '1 percent' areas -- items such as reducing wind drag, eliminating engine-driven power steering pumps and switching to low-friction engine oil," Derrick Kuzak, Ford Motor Co.'s group vice president of global product development, said earlier this year at the Los Angeles auto show. "Collectively, these small improvements deliver significant fuel economy gains for our customers."
Ford hopes to find bigger gains in its gasoline turbo-charged direct injection engines, known as GTDI that it is developing. Over the next five years, Ford will put four- and six-cylinder engines in a number of vehicles. These engines provide the power of much larger engines with the efficiencies of smaller ones.
"All of the carmakers will reach the new regulations," said Stephanie Brinley, an analyst for AutoPacific Inc., a Southfield based consulting firm. "But the answers are going to be a variety of solutions. It's not automatically hybrid or diesel, it's everything."
Most carmakers are going that route, not putting all of their efficiency eggs in one basket.
"It's too early to tell exactly what will happen to our fleet, but we're continuing to work on improving the efficiency of all our vehicles," Chrysler vice president of product Frank Klegon said last week.
General Motors Corp. will make changes all around, too, but will focus particularly on its Chevrolet brand. The company recently announced it would strive to have the most fuel efficient vehicle in every segment where it sells vehicles, including the small and midsize car segments dominated by Japanese carmakers.
Chris Preuss, a GM spokesman, said carmakers were already adjusting their future vehicle lineups to the changing demands of consumers.
"Crossovers are already replacing many large SUVs," he said. "There's been a resurgence in demand for small cars as the price of gasoline has stayed around $3 (a gallon) in recent years. Many of these different technologies are far more mainstream."
And more expensive.
"The materials to make vehicles lighter and more efficient cost more money," Preuss said.
A gas-electric hybrid vehicle can cost $6,000 more than a gasoline-only version of the same vehicle, and diesel engines require stronger parts and additional filtering systems to pass rigid emission tests, AutoPacific analyst Brinley said.
Those prices do not include the initial costs to build and test the new technology, which can also be expensive.
"All of that costs money," she said. "Those costs will be passed onto the consumers."
Consumers are also the real wild card when it comes to the new fuel economy standards. Carmakers can build super efficient vehicles, but that doesn't mean consumes will buy them.
"There have been small, efficient four-cylinder cars around for decades, and they've had good mileage," Brinley said. "If consumers really wanted those, we wouldn't have the problem we have today."
Print
|
